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  • Agris Gruzdas

My OCTOBER results. How long can you trade against the market before starting to doubt yourself?


Another month went by when again my account stood almost still. As I mentioned previously – in time of uncertainty I am going to focus on preserving capital. My account statement speaks for itself: 60% of all transactions are closed breaking even. I am not going to wait for the deal to "go in my direction". I just simply close if there is no price movement in my direction. Currently it feels like this time seems to drag on for an eternity. I have been on the "opposite side of the trenches" since April. I believe that COVID - 19 has a huge negative impact on the economy, but the markets "think otherwise".


That is what macro traders experience. One can never know the exact time when the market will "recover" and move "logically" with the economy. Peter Schiff is an example. In 2006, he began to speak publicly about the impending crisis. But the market began to fall sharply at the end of 2008. He waited almost three years for his prediction to be "played out." Yes, now the situation is different, but nothing good is happening from an economic point of view. I just hope that I won’t have to wait three years for my strategy to pay off.


And now another problem arises: the self-doubt.

Is my system working? Isn't it time for change? Will the market now be like this – irrational, moving away from the economy? Is this the "new normal” regime for markets? Either way, I am sticking to my trading style since I have been trading "against the market" for more than half a year and still have managed to keep my account "above the water". I am rather confident that when my opinion will coincide with the market my account will experience much better times.


And here comes another thing. I have a very hard time trading right now and keep publishing blog posts, especially knowing that my trading results are publicly available. So, naturally I want to have a positive result month after month. And when it's not, I try to "find a deal" to make at least some small plus.

On the other hand, I hardly trade in the crypto account where I “sit” in the long run. I'm the bull of the Crypto market and I don't see why I should change my mind. My crypto account is very easy to manage psychologically – just be on trend, be in the long run, and it is very satisfying to notice that actual situation positively unfolding day by day.

Now I understand why over time, short-term traders become long-term traders. Because it is psychologically difficult to follow the markets day by day. Follow daily news. Think about how markets will open and close. Other people even wake up at night and watch on the phone what happens during an Asian session – it's not life I want to live. Change your strategy as well if it wears you out. Your strategy should match your personality, so you can don’t struggle too much managing it.


Stay tuned!


Agris

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