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  • Writer's pictureAgris Gruzdas

My April 2020 results: reality check

Well, **it happens… Negative month with the biggest drop so far. The result is minus 9%. However, I’m not the only one I guess, I believe many have made lots of mistakes as well. Many believed, including myself that the markets should fall, but the opposite happened. In April, the market experienced strong growth instead. The most popular opinion is that this happened due to Federal Reserve’s stimulating measures. So, as the old investing mantra says “Don’t fight the Fed”...

It would be wise to agree on that and move on since these are just reservations after all. Still, the beginning of April came as a hard reality check for me, close to catastrophic. Especially when I thought that I understand the market after really good results of the previous months. I was rather confident about where the market was going, my analytic tools were “perfect” (or so I thought) and I could take some risks. Alas, in these uncertain circumstances I feel ashamed to see my account’s printout.

Then I reduced the risks and faced the next psychological pit - over-trading. I made 46 transactions in a month. In comparison, I had a total of 40 transactions in the first three months of 2020. I tried to catch every move and started to begin to doubt my decisions along the way. Sometimes I closed some deals just because I “didn't like” the price, without any logical justification to my decisions.

It's hard to trade when the price goes in opposite direction to your analytics and understanding of the situation. I believe that the Macro point of view is just one viewpoint, and the graphs show whether you ar right or not. The graph is a great timing tool, and this time I made a big mistake with “timing”. I rather convinced that the consequences of COVID-19 will be serious, even more serious than many believe.

It is not just that there are mistakes. My predictions about Bitcoin have come true. Gold also fulfills its function and oil is running low. And the stock markets are experiencing a rise that is absolutely beating me out of the ordinary...

Stay tuned!


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